What shitty odds...

A match against an Italian who is logically the favorite when he plays at home. He overperforms his level there, and that’s what he did at the Cagliari Challenger. He even managed to get through his first round thanks to the crowd, and it’s true that for some time now we’ve seen the Italian play in a fairly mediocre way compared to the level he had gotten us used to. The fact of playing in Italy again, having taken part in this Challenger, is of course a very important factor for him to get back to a decent level here in Rome, in a tournament he particularly enjoys. But in this tournament, he’s never really succeeded, with at best a quarterfinal in 2020. When you think about it a bit, I find that quite logical because the clay in Rome is almost at sea level; apart from a high bounce, it’s quite slow, which is not the ideal set of conditions for the Italian, who relies on his service–forehand–backhand slice triptych. On top of that, he’s going through a rough patch, especially compared with his match in Monte Carlo against the Brazilian Fonseca, where he was really too far behind in terms of pure level, with his weaknesses on the backhand side clearly exposed. I think the Italian is a likely winner, obviously, but not without difficulty. He needs to find his clutch side again and, on top of that, if they play on Wednesday, the weather is heavy, cloudy, even rainy, so the clay will be too. Maybe a bit better for his backhand slice, and it also gives him time to run around and hit forehands, so that’s not a bad thing. For me, the match day is quite important; I’m waiting for the schedule to come out. On the Australian’s side, he preferred to go and train at the Mouratoglou academy, to regain both physical and tennis form, because since his return from injury, it hasn’t been great either. The Australian hasn’t exactly been very lucky with his draws, it has to be said, and that doesn’t help him regain confidence, which is a truly driving ingredient in his comeback. We’ve already seen him play very good tennis on clay at sea level: that was in Umag in 2024, where he won the tournament. He obviously had a much higher overall level and confidence back then than he does today. But I think he can reach a level that could trouble the Italian; their previous meetings have only been on hard courts. Here he’s a complete outsider, with no pressure. Given that Berrettini is on an upward trajectory with a Challenger in Italy in his legs, it’s logical to see him as the likely winner here, but at odds of 1.40, I’m not very convinced.