Ofner as the favorite is a pain!

The Austrian isn't really the kind of player you can/want to trust as the favorite..

Ofner is often interesting when he’s on fire and the underdog, the kind of dangerous profile against higher-ranked players who can get caught off guard. Here it’s the complete opposite: he’s not really in form and above all he’s a strong favorite. He does deserve that status though; if he were the underdog I’d have clicked without hesitation. A bit disappointed by his last two matches though: against Etcheverry in Madrid he was completely outplayed from the baseline and handed over two breaks before lacking fighting spirit; altitude is great for him until he has to defend/return. I was expecting better from him in Aix, but he lost to Hijikata (MTO for an illness apparently), not exactly a great version of Ofner at the moment. Last year he had a great tournament here but he came through qualifying and was building confidence, which isn’t the case this time and he’ll have to deal with that.

This draw is actually not bad at all for him against Michelsen; the American on clay is pretty disastrous. He beat Struff in Madrid but with the altitude his game worked better than it does on slow clay like Rome; his last two appearances there were nothing to brag about either, he barely won 5 games across two matches. For me it’s impossible to trust him on this kind of clay. He was in Aix too and without the MTO he loses to Martin Tiffon in three sets, giving up a huge number of chances on serve.

Ofner is still a much better clay-courter than Michelsen, without a shadow of a doubt; his current form isn’t optimal but Michelsen’s is even worse.