Who will crack first?

The Chilean Christian Garin alternates between very encouraging matches and matches where he has some serious lapses. That was the case in Cagliari, for example, against Echargui, whom he then beats quite easily in Rome in qualifying, and then Echargui goes on to play a Brit that he struggles to beat. I get the feeling Garin doesn’t really know which strategy to adopt when he plays a counterpuncher like Echargui. He needs to go forward because he’s the one with more power and the better attacking game. When he plays someone like Choinski, he needs to be much more in a counterattacking role, and sometimes he doesn’t quite know how to position himself. I bring this up because against the younger Cerundolo brother, you can’t afford any strategic mistakes. And mentally, you have to be able to play a full match and keep your opponent’s head under water without ever giving him the chance to come back. Otherwise, that devil Cerundolo will sneak into the slightest gap. What worries me a bit for the Argentinian is his current form level, which doesn’t look exceptional. Surely it’s still his lack of confidence caused by the transition he’s making in his game, where he’s hitting with more power on serve and forehand and struggling to find his balance with his defensive DNA. For me, this is a match that could get quite tricky, with a Chilean who needs to dictate play and win with a certain margin, but as soon as he lets his guard down, he’ll be caught quite quickly. I’m going to look at the odds on his win, and if they’re not too low, I’ll be leaning towards his victory. On the other hand, if they’re too low, I’ll be much more tempted to bet on a somewhat messy match rather than on a straight win.