What do you want me to tell you?

It’s really a trap match, because we all know who we want to bet on, but we all feel like we’re going to get screwed, right?

I'm obviously talking about Dzumhur. How could I not go for his ML at almost 2.55 right now as I'm doing this analysis? The Bosnian is a much better clay-court player than Tien, but he's a player you can rarely rely on or trust when you expect him to. He's been playing some pretty strange tournaments since the clay-court season returned, capable of winning a few matches and then getting thrashed by players he should beat or at least trouble. It's quite strange; I can't really figure out where he stands. I'm inclined to say that the trend is that he's losing momentum, but we find him in the role of an underdog this time, which changes things a bit, since we're considering him at much higher odds and against a player we want to lay!

Tien is simply disastrous on clay, like so many Americans. The young American doesn't seem very focused and just doesn't play well on this surface. I saw his match in Madrid against Valero, who, in my opinion, is a good clay-court player—annoying and difficult to handle—but who doesn't actually have an exceptional level of play. Yet, Tien failed to showcase his best tennis. And now he's playing on a slow clay court, which I don't particularly like either, given that he's shown in the past that he has significant lapses in his physical condition. On top of that, he's once again playing against an excellent clay-court specialist who has mastered the surface, unlike him.

I get the feeling we're being forced to click on Dzumhur at this price, but we don't really want to go there. Verdict?