Third thrashing?

Their two meetings were a while ago, but an average of 2 games per set for Kecmanovic, there might be something there...

I don’t remember their match, and Rublev had a bigger edge over his rivals back then. From afar, I’d say Rublev just does everything a bit better from the baseline. Hits a bit harder, misses a bit less, takes the ball a bit earlier... Today we’ve got a Rublo who loses to Fils in the Barcelona final in a match where he didn’t play well but it was also a bad match-up, then he gets caught out by that devil Kopriva in Madrid. Nothing serious. In Rome, though, he doesn’t really shine. I put it a bit down to the high bounce, because in Monte Carlo he has very good results. And when you think about it, of course it’s better for him to hit as many forehands as possible at hip height.

On Kecma’s side, it’s kind of a constant with him: he plays good matches, but loses. He’s also playing good guys. And against a guy he struggles with, is there really any point in trying to grind out a tight match?

Yes, in the sense that the gap in pure level isn’t the same as it was three years ago.

No, in the sense that there’s a decent chance the match-up hasn’t changed.

Neither player is among those who have really transformed their game. So I don’t think there’s any point overthinking it here, and that Rublo will calmly but surely control this match. So I’ll only look for something to play if the odds encourage me to.