A bit too early for Foki?

The Spaniard is in the recovery phase, but physically he’s a beast, which is often the longest thing to get back when you’re coming back from an injury. Maybe he’s already capable of playing big tournaments.

For his comeback tournament last week in Madrid, Foki played very well against Carreño Busta before putting in a rather shameful performance against Casper Ruud. You can’t really blame him because he’s not at all ready yet to beat the top players, but it’s a bit of a shame to have let the match go like that when he’s simply happy to be back on court. The road is going to be long to get back to his best level, but as I said, physically he’s one of the strongest players on tour and often, when you come back from injury, that’s exactly where you struggle for a while before getting back to your peak. I think he’s got enough talent in his racket to make up for his lack of match rhythm, but his tennis ceiling is obviously a bit lower than it was before his injury.

A big test awaits Foki with Garin, who’s really playing some good tennis this season. The Chilean got past Cerundolo in a tough match, but the level of play was pretty convincing. When he plays at this level, he’s a genuinely strong clay-court player, and more than capable of beating Fokina now. There’s one thing in particular I’ll be wary of, and that’s the tension at the end of sets, because Garin is really bad at closing out matches, and Fokina should be backed by an Italian crowd that likes him a lot.

It seems a bit early to trust Fokina against such an opponent. I feel like the potential value will be on the Chilean’s side. Let’s go check the odds.