A matchup story...

If I find Tomas Machac in great form here in Rome, his second round might be very different from the first...

And yeah, I really think this is one of those cases where the in-form player has the unfavorable match-up. At least, Tomas Machac already has a match in his legs. He might not actually be “more in form,” since Daniil is coming back strong, but he showed a really good level against Tsitsipas. I almost saw a smile! In any case, he had the tools to neutralize Tsitsi’s excellent serve +1 game. Today, he’s going to have to do even more. Not just because Daniil is coming back strong as I said, but also because Rome is surely his best clay-court tournament along with Monte Carlo. His title here three years ago on very heavy clay due to the rain was followed by two nice runs to the last 16 with some very good matches. As often, the Russian will try to throw Machac off by being a wall. And there aren’t a million ways this can go: at times, the Czech will play too fast and too well and manage to hit through the Russian, and at other times he’ll overdo it. It really reminds me of that match the Czech played against Fritz at the US Open, where he came in on a huge hot streak but got completely shut down by Fritz’s court coverage + numbers tennis + big serve. Today, though, we’re on clay. Even if he’s improved, the Russian still moves less well on this surface with his long legs and high center of gravity. It’ll be sunny, around 25 degrees, with a drier and therefore faster clay. I couldn’t really say who that favors more. All I keep thinking is that I regret that Machac plays a bit too much in rhythm, just going left/right, and doesn’t mix in enough drop shots and different trajectories… Because you have to make Daniil move: forward/back, short cross-court, then bang, a big rip into his forehand, then a few loopy balls… The flat, skidding left/right rhythm, he eats that for breakfast every morning.