Almost worthy of a first round.

I feel like this match is incredibly difficult to analyze. At the same time, Tiafoe only had one match before this one, and Pellegrino won through injury against Fils. Not easy.

We got some big info about Tiafoe, because there had been even more doubts before his first-round match. In particular, there was a potential back injury he’d mentioned as a reason for skipping Monte Carlo and Rome. No problem on that front, and he more or less admitted that it was more of an excuse to take his time after a few busy weeks, and that he really wanted to be at his best for Rome and Roland-Garros.

I feel like giving him credit after his first round and the quality of his tennis for this comeback match. I saw a fantastic Tiafoe: committed, aggressive, patient, and solid physically but also mentally, even though there were a few tough scenarios for him to handle in his match against Buse. This first round was really impressive in every aspect.

What’s going to change in this second round? First of all, the support. He was carried by the whole crowd in his first match, but this time he’s playing a local and will get the bare minimum in terms of support. That can matter, given we know how good he is at putting on a show and feeding off a crowd that’s behind him. Still, I don’t think it will really affect him. He played well in his opening match, the tennis was there, and he’s in good shape.

Another player in good form is Pellegrino, who came through qualifying and just benefited from Arthur Fils’ retirement to make it this far.

The Italian isn’t here by accident; he had already shown some very good things during the Golden Swing but unfortunately got injured afterward, which explains his poor results since then. Now that he’s fit, we can clearly see he’s an excellent tennis player who deserves a much better ranking. He plays relatively well, has real power from the baseline, and knows how to be patient. He also has a good mentality—he’s really not the kind of player you want to face, and even less so when he’s the local favorite.

He’ll be more penetrating and aggressive than Buse, which could cause a few problems for Tiafoe, who prefers to have control of the game. I think Pellegrino is capable of hanging in there for quite a while before eventually cracking, but I don’t see him getting blown off the court or wasting his chances in this match.