The light at the end of the tunnel?

De Minaur is going through a very tricky spell and the poor guy once again gets stuck with a disastrous draw. Everything is going against him at the moment.

De Minaur’s last few months have been really complicated. He’s really not winning many matches and is badly lacking confidence. You can feel it every time he plays; he’s a bit more tense than usual right from the start. He’s constantly doubting himself and seems destined to lose matches over and over again. When I look more closely at his performances, I don’t see a guy who’s playing really badly, but I mostly get the feeling that he’s run into top players every time, and on top of that, he’s putting in more than decent performances.

So far, his clay-court season has gone like this: a loss to Vacherot in Monte Carlo, a local player, then to Medjedovic who was playing very well, then to Jodar, another local in Madrid, and last week it was against Arnaldi in Rome, again another local, in an incredible atmosphere. Poor De Minaur is already in a tough situation, but on top of that, he’s only had nightmare draws. This week, he has to face Cerundolo again for his opening match. It’s just brutal for him.

As for Cerundolo, I still think he’s not at the top of his form and is playing a few good matches where he beats opponents he’s supposed to beat, and loses when he’s supposed to lose, plain and simple. I have to admit his match against Tabilo in Rome last week was just perfect, but after that he absolutely didn’t back it up against Musetti in a match of a really low level, and the Italian was not at 100%; yet Cerundolo still couldn’t get through. I remain convinced that the Argentine has been slightly overperforming in terms of results recently compared to his real current level.

In terms of the match-up, it’s pretty tight when they play each other. Let’s say I like De Minaur’s resilience from the baseline to absorb Cerundolo’s forehand and force him to hit again and again. I especially struggle to back De Minaur when he plays against ultra-powerful players who can hurt him right from the serve and on the first strikes. That can be the case with Cerundolo, but the Argentine isn’t an ultra-aggressive player either. He builds his points and once he has to finish, he does it with his forehand.