A tiny little flaw.

This is surely the first time Ruud is going to face a Sinner who looks this drained and beatable. Maybe Ruud will, for once, actually do something.

Let’s be honest, without Sinner’s little physical and also mental doubts, we wouldn’t be asking ourselves so many questions, given how much the Italian generally dominates against Ruud. He’s already leading 5–0 in head-to-heads with incredibly one‑sided scorelines. He hasn’t lost a single set and even though they’ve only played once on clay, it was right here last year and Ruud only won a single game. That’s pretty representative of the match‑up and what happens when these two face each other. At the same time, Sinner isn’t particularly bothered by Ruud’s game and hurts him way too much.

This week, Sinner is quite strange. You can feel that the sequence of tournaments is especially tough and that this is an event he should have skipped without a second thought. But as we saw again against Medvedev, it’s almost impossible to beat him, even in this state. His match and energy management is simply perfect. It feels like he has the experience of a veteran when it comes to handling the tough moments. He played today to finish his match against Daniil, but it was really very quick and you can almost treat it as a rest day. I still see him in good shape for tomorrow, and it’s a final where he has a tremendous psychological edge.

Ruud is facing a massive challenge. First of all, on a personal level for him, just taking a set off Sinner, or even going for the win, is almost unimaginable. And on top of that, we’re in Rome, in a final for the title. It would be even crazier if the Norwegian were to take the title in Sinner’s backyard. He’s playing well this week, not much negative to say, but I get the feeling he’s had a nice draw and that his opponents haven’t all really been at the level. When you think back on it, Lehecka faded, Musetti was cooked, Kacha wasn’t quite at the level, and Darderi was even more cooked.

I really liked his level, but I have to put his run into perspective because we’re talking about facing Sinner, and I haven’t seen a Ruud who is exceptionally better than usual or capable of changing the equation in terms of his own level.

On the other hand, Ruud is serious, he has a very solid baseline game and Sinner is not at 100%, which could leave the door open for Ruud over the long haul, but at any moment this match could become too quick and the physical aspect wouldn’t even matter.