High-pressure week.

Cobolli is the defending champion and is coming off a Rome campaign that can be described as disappointing. He’ll have to be careful not to slip up this week either.

A good win against Atmane, then a bad match against Tirante. It’s not the run Cobolli wanted to have, but he seemed to take it pretty well after his defeat. He says it’s part of tennis and that he puts a lot of pressure on himself when he plays at home. Another week is coming for him, and knowing that he generally plays well in Germany, we can be relatively optimistic for him this week. I like the conditions, it’s slow without being too slow, and the high bounce is really what he enjoys the most, given that he can use his kick serve or his very heavy forehand. I see a fair few reasons to expect a good match from the Italian.

He will face Buse to start the defense of his title. Everyone is beginning to realize that the Peruvian is anything but an easy opponent on clay. He just came through qualifying, losing only five games in two matches. But he hasn’t beaten anyone big, with a win over McDonald (not the American) and over Gaston, who really kind of threw his match away. I have to say that before that, Buse didn’t particularly impress me in the last tournaments. He wins a few matches, but it’s quite labored, and as soon as there’s a stronger player on the other side of the net, he’s blocked.

This match almost entirely depends on Cobolli. Historically, we know you have to be careful with him in the early rounds of each tournament, because he has already shown a certain mental laxity. Unless you’re really sure, you often have to skip betting on him. But here, we have two reasons to want to be on his side. The first is his recent level of play; he’s in a good spell. The second is that he’s defending his title, so he will inevitably be fully engaged.