Head-to-head is 1–1 on clay, the decider in Strasbourg!

Daria Kasatkina and Peyton Stearns meet again on Alsatian clay with some recent history to settle. Roland-Garros 2023: Kasatkina crushes Stearns 6-0 6-1 in under an hour. Roland-Garros 2024: Stearns gets her revenge and knocks out the 10th seed in straight sets 7-5 6-2. One win each on Grand Slam clay, with their levels reversed in a way that reflects two different trajectories since then.

Kasatkina comes in at her best form of the season. After a hip injury that sidelined her for two months at the start of the year, the Russian-born Australian captured her first title since Ningbo at the WTA 125 in La Bisbal d’Emporda in early May, then followed it up with a solid win over Zakharova in qualifying yesterday, before taking out Samsonova in R1 today 7-5 6-3 in under two hours. Four wins in a row, 9 in her last 11 matches. Seen moving freely and without restriction on Court Patrice Dominguez today, the hip now seems firmly behind her. Her 2026 clay stats back this up: 54.5% of return games won, 64.5% on opponents’ second serve, match efficiency at 2.043 and 1.15 break points created per game, almost double Stearns’ numbers.

Stearns beat Sakkari 6-3 6-1 yesterday in 76 minutes and arrives confident as well. The American is structurally dangerous on clay with a 27–14 career record on this surface. Her serve is her main weapon: 68.5% of service games won, 61.8% of break points saved, 65.7% on first serve and 4.3 aces per match this season. Her dominance efficiency at 1.291 is higher than Kasatkina’s on that specific metric. But her 35.9% of return games won on clay in 2026 versus 54.5% for Kasatkina creates a major tactical imbalance: she’s likely to hold serve but struggle to break on this slow clay.