ADM as an obvious choice?

Given the odds, ADM seems a big favorite in this match; does that seem normal to you?

Finally a win for ADM after a tough streak of losses where he was really tense. It was close yesterday but he finished strong, and that win did him a world of good – you could see it in his celebration on match point. As for the level of the match itself? Honestly, not great. He’s trying a lot and making way more errors than before, it’s just not peak ADM, and these conditions aren’t ideal for him: it’s slow and the bounce is high, awful. I think he’s a great player who can quickly get back to a high level, but it’ll take a lot more than just one match before you can really write him off.

On the other hand, I also think Fokina is looking for his best tennis and still can’t manage to sustain his level throughout an entire match. His win over Moutet wasn’t great either and he was insanely clutch (13/13 break points saved). It’s an impatient Foki in the rallies, who wants to make a difference quickly because in my opinion his physical condition is still far from reliable since his comeback. He too can quickly get back to top level with a few matches under his belt, and it’s only a matter of time, but right now I’m not all that convinced.

Historically it’s tight, quite a few close matches and a 3–3 head-to-head, but Foki had match points in their last meeting. At their best level I rate the Spaniard higher! If I have to go by their current form, I’d say that over the distance ADM is supposed to come out on top, but it wouldn’t be a shock if he lost in straight sets before turning it into a physical battle.