A bad draw

Rublev is unlucky drawing Buse, who just had a huge tournament in Hamburg, but maybe that’s better for Rublev?

And yeah, because in a way Buse has already given a lot in this tournament and has just had the best week of his life, physically it’s hard to be optimistic for him, especially since his game is largely based on his physical qualities and his ability to make his opponents play one more shot. The level of play is there, but he’s playing again on Monday at Roland-Garros and won’t have an easy preparation given that he’s playing his final on Saturday in Germany. I’m a bit afraid it’ll be too much for him.

That’s why this draw actually isn’t bad for Rublev, and I’d add that I really like the match-up too. He likes having time and dictating play, and Buse is going to happily let him do that! Recently we’ve seen a good Rublev again as well; I think his clay season has been pretty successful. There was some disappointment in Monte Carlo and then in Madrid, but Barcelona and Rome were great. Clay calms him down a bit in the sense that he’s forced to work a bit longer, and he also knows he can come back, whereas on hard courts it’s more complicated. We’ve got a good version of the Russian, and on top of that he hasn’t lost a first-round match at Roland-Garros since 2021! It would be surprising to see him stumble right away, even if you have to acknowledge the quality of his opponent.

We can’t rule out seeing Rublev completely tight and a pressure-free Buse playing relaxed and starting strong, but there are still quite a lot of scenarios where in the end it’s Rublev who wins...