The tipping point

Last year it was kind of here that Bublik’s season really took off, to the point where he simply became one of the best players in the world.

A lot of points for Bublik to defend in the coming weeks, and given how he’s currently slowing down I’m really scared for him. Either we see him locked in again, determined to defend his skin tooth and nail, or he’s going to completely blow up mid-flight. The thing is, Roland is hell for him, he’d never gone far there before last year and this kind of clay doesn’t suit him as much as altitude clay, so he’s going to have to fight. The small bit of luck is that he’s up against an aggressive profile who prefers short rallies, which should please him. I watched Bublik all week in Geneva and after two very focused rounds he did anything and everything against Tien and even seemed tired at the end of the match, when it wasn’t even a physical match…

But like I said, it’s not Struff who’s going to force a physical battle on him, but you have to take the German seriously in a Grand Slam. The guy often pulls off big performances when you’re not really expecting it, including a win over Tiafoe last year at the US Open for example! Or he’ll lose on hard against Kopriva at the Australian Open too! That’s representative of the player and his profile, he’s capable of anything, that’s Struff. He’s coming in this year with a low level, his recent wins are against Comesana and Muller, two guys just as bad as he is right now. Then he got spanked by better players afterwards.

It’s the kind of match that kind of forces you to look at the underdog, in my opinion. He’s even leading the H2H with a win over Bublik right here in 2024 already. Even if his season has been awful, he can still pull out a crazy match.