Good draw for Coco?

Moutet avoids a seeded player, but you can’t really say he’s got an easy first round either, far from it...

Kopriva is one of the in-form players this clay-court season, and that was already the case during the Golden Swing as well. He’s coming off several good tournaments even if you can sense a slight drop-off with two relatively early losses recently. Nothing dramatic, he’s losing to Humbert and FAA, it’s mainly the match-up that’s a problem for him. As soon as he faces a guy who serves well and can attack quickly, he’s lost because he’s not a powerful player, and I’d even classify him as an aggressive clay-courter. He’s smart in his tactical choices and can do a bit of everything. This will be a first meeting against Moutet, but on paper I like the match-up for him: he’ll have time, and Moutet’s lefty touch won’t bother him too much since his backhand is his best shot. That’s how I see the match, but you have to factor in the X-factor…

Yeah, because we’re at Roland Garros! And when it’s Roland, it often means an XXL Moutet. The Frenchman is always good in Paris and is finding his form again, he’s at home and you have to take into account that he’s going to raise his level. I will factor that in, but he comes in with big doubts hanging over his head this year, with few wins recently and a right wrist that’s stopping him from being at 100%. He makes up for a lot with his physicality, but you can really see him struggling to last over time because his game is based on that and he doesn’t get any free points, he spends his time running. I do think he’s capable of firing up the crowd and putting pressure on a Kopriva who can get tight, but I still struggle to see Coco coming out on top over the long haul.