D-Day for Bonzi?

Grand Slam match against a weakened Z, maybe that’s where the upset is!

La Bonz steps onto the court this Sunday, and not against just anyone! Z has an impressive track record at Roland. People have often said that if there was one Grand Slam he could win, it was this one.

Now, Z has withdrawn from the Hamburg tournament because of a back issue. He says his back has been bothering him all clay season. I’d also heard he’d been a bit sick too. If we look back at his season, his Monte Carlo was really meh in terms of level of play, same for Munich. It’s in Madrid and Rome that he finds his real level again, then there’s that horrible loss to Darderi. So I do think there’s something there, but it might be more mental than people think. His final against Sinner in Madrid was a disaster, he had nothing to offer, and part of me is starting to think the guy just gave up. Why give 100% if you know Sinner is going to win anyway?

On La Bonz’s side, we saw last year how much he can transcend himself at a Grand Slam. Well, especially if he’s playing Medvedev ;). He takes a set off Sinner in Madrid and then says, “one set is good, but it’s not enough…”. Great, but after that he doesn’t back it up in Rome or Bordeaux. We shouldn’t forget this guy plays an aggressive game and takes the ball pretty early. I saw him get completely tangled up against Agut in Monte Carlo, and his loss to Svrcina in Rome was the same kind of thing. In terms of defensive play, Zverev is one of the best in the world. And I’m also thinking there’s a scenario where Z preferred to play it safe in Hamburg, and is going to slowly but surely grind down La Bonz thanks to a favorable match-up.

You’ll say to me, why does it work against Medvedev then? For me, it’s a question of trajectory. At hip height, La Bonz is much more comfortable.

But anyway, on today’s fast clay and with La Bonz’s ability to do damage when he’s at his best, we know where there might be some value...