The earthling is not the favorite

Michelsen is indeed the favorite in this match, yet the American on clay is nothing special

Not great, but he still has real offensive quality that can do enough damage even on this surface. Michelsen is coming off a decent tournament in Geneva where the conditions suited him; it’s simple, this season he’s won 4 matches on clay and each time it was on fast clay. As soon as it’s slow, he struggles, he went out quickly in Rome, Munich, and Aix. That’s where he’ll need to be good, because Roland isn’t incredibly slow but it’s not a lively clay like Geneva either. He can still make his serve and his ability to cut off trajectories work, especially on the backhand, but he’s going to make errors, and against a good defender he can lose his way.

Shevchenko will have that responsibility, he knows he has to make this match last and wear Michelsen down by dragging him into a real clay-courter’s match; that’s where he can come out on top, but I’m quite skeptical about the Kazakh’s level. His clay season has been disastrous, he recently beat Carabelli in a deciding tie-break and that’s about it, the rest has been disappointing and below expectations. He also retired in Bordeaux but without taking an MTO, weird. Everything makes me want to lay him at the moment, but we can categorize Shevchenko as a Grand Slam player, he’s more focused than ever in these big tournaments and can suddenly find his motivation and level again.

The scenario I see shaping up is a good start from Michelsen before seeing Shevchenko gradually turn the match in his favor?