If it's the same Sára that I saw in Strasbourg this week...

Court 6 is going to be the scene of a shipwreck for the young guard if Sára Bejlek shows the same lifeless face she did in Strasbourg. Swept aside in her opener in Alsace by Emma Navarro (6-1, 6-4), the Czech displayed terrifying shortcomings: only 45% of points won behind her first serve, a tiny 33% behind her second serve, and 6 breaks conceded in just two sets. Coming back from an abdominal tear after her title in Abu Dhabi, the left-hander has completely lost her touch and is now on a run of three first-round exits on European clay. Faced with this glaring lack of form, Sloane Stephens is reborn at the perfect time. After a long layoff due to a stress fracture, the former finalist of the 2018 edition has fully found her rhythm again by dominating the qualifying rounds in Paris, dropping only one set along the way. Her track record in the main draw speaks for itself, with two round-of-16 appearances in 2023 and 2024, while Sára has only a second round in 2025 as a modest reference point.

The tactical and psychological edge leans heavily in favor of the American champion, who is particularly dangerous against left-handers with a historical record of 27 wins to 14 losses. Under the heavy 3:30 p.m. sun, the dry clay will speed up the game and punish the young Czech’s nerves on serve, as she is already averaging 3.19 double faults per match this season. Sloane will rush into this opening thanks to her superb aggression on return, reflected in 2026 by 4.55 breaks converted per match and 7.86 points won at the net per encounter. Completely lost in the middle of rallies and unable to save break points, as evidenced by her collapses in Madrid, Rome, and Strasbourg, the Czech does not currently possess the mental weapons to withstand the American metronome.