Who believes it?

It's almost impossible to imagine a victory for Mensik after the state he finished in, and yet...

The Czech was actually quite reassuring in the press conference. He said that about an hour and a half after the end of his match, he was already feeling very good in the locker room. He also mentioned that he’s already played several five-set matches where he was able to recover afterwards. I don’t think he’s bluffing and I think he’ll have recovered well by then. But obviously, it still looks very tough for him to get a win, especially against a player like De Minaur, who is going to make him play again and again until he wears him out once more.

De Minaur is the complete opposite: he had an easy first‑round match and didn’t even have to play his second-round match against Blockx. There’s such a big difference in physical freshness here that he’s supposed to come out on top sooner or later in this match.

De Minaur also has a psychological edge over Mensik, as he leads 5–0 in their head-to-head. This 5–0 needs a bit of context though, with one win by retirement and one match at the United Cup, a competition that’s always a bit particular at the start of the year. I do think De Minaur has a good matchup against Mensik.

Mensik, who literally has nothing to lose, is likely to start strong with exceptional serving quality. He has already pulled off serve-and-volley plays several times and even tried second-serve aces against Navone. In my opinion, he’s going to start the match at a good level and could hold on for one or two sets before starting to drop in intensity.