14 matches won out of 14 in 2026, is it the end of a streak?

There are matches where the numbers tell two simultaneous and contradictory stories. On one side, Iga Świątek: 43 wins and 3 losses in her career at Roland Garros, four-time champion of the tournament, 29 wins in her last 30 matches at the Porte d’Auteuil, a round of 16 for the eighth consecutive year. H2H 3–0 in her favor against Kostyuk, without losing a set in those three encounters, the most recent dating back to August 2024 on hard courts in Cincinnati. On the other side, Marta Kostyuk: 14–0 on clay over the last 52 weeks, unbeaten on the surface since the start of the 2026 season, titles in Rouen and at the WTA 1000 in Madrid, a 6–4 6–3 win over Golubic on Friday without really having to push. These two realities will collide on Sunday.

The 2026 clay stats for both players paint a more nuanced picture than the simple balance of power suggested by the odds. Świątek maintains a dominance ratio above 2.190 compared to 1.649 for Kostyuk, which reflects a higher volume of chance creation. But the dominance efficiency tells another story: 0.913 for Świątek versus 1.294 for Kostyuk, which means Kostyuk converts better from what she produces. On pressure points on serve, Kostyuk is at 73% at 30–30 and 77% at 40–40 this season, compared with 54% and 47% for Świątek. On return, Kostyuk shows 100% at 0–40, 94% at 15–40, 89% at 0–30 on 2026 clay, numbers that echo the engine of her game: she converts in situations where most players pull back.

The reading of the matches played at Roland Garros over this fortnight, however, tempers Kostyuk’s structural advantage on saved breaks. Over the three rounds, she posted 4/7 against Selekhmeteva, 5/8 against Volynets in three sets, 1/3 against Golubic, which comes to about 43% across the tournament. That’s comparable to Świątek’s level over the same fortnight. The match against Volynets was the most revealing: three sets, 7 double faults, 47 unforced errors, a serve that came and went over the course of the match. Świątek, for her part, has shown clear progression as the tournament has gone on. Against Linette on Friday, 58% first serves in, only 2 double faults, 59% on second serve, a match far more controlled than the first two. The structural flaw in her serve under pressure remains real, but the Pole is ramping up.

What has remained constant with Kostyuk across the three matches is her return. Fifty-one percent won on the opponent’s first serve against Selekhmeteva, 60% on the opponent’s second serve against Golubic, a breakpoints prevail of 2.135 on 2026 clay, higher than Świątek’s 2.000. Her match efficiency ratio at 10.000 compared with 1.370 for Świątek on 2026 clay reflects what the eye has seen since Rouen: a player who simply doesn’t lose on this surface right now. Roland Garros is Świątek’s temple, and the 3–0 H2H is real. But it has never come against a Kostyuk in this kind of form, and never on clay. Against the top 10 over the last 52 weeks, the Ukrainian is now even, 5 wins and 6 losses, a ratio that reflects a structural rise in level rather than a temporary surge.