A very special RG!

Aryna Sabalenka came to Paris to win the tournament, and nothing in her three matches so far contradicts that ambition. Her victory over Kasatkina on Saturday was her 100th as world number one: 37 winners to 12, 89% of service games won, match wrapped up in 1h16. She’s ramping up with each round, exactly as she usually does in Grand Slams. The head-to-head is 2–1 for the Belarusian, with two wins this season, including Madrid on clay in three sets. In the evening with a heavier ball, her topspin and power find their ideal conditions.

Naomi Osaka is writing her own story in Paris: her first-ever round of 16 at Roland-Garros and the first Japanese player to get there since 2004. She had to battle for 2h58 against Jovic on Saturday to pull through in three sets, a physically costly match before this night session. Her serve has been her main weapon this fortnight, with 91% then 88% of service games won in her last two matches. But she hardly breaks at all, with only 12% to 20% of return games won over the three rounds, and Sabalenka targets the opponent’s second serve precisely, a documented weakness for her in this tournament. The 1–6 record against top-10 players over the last 52 weeks is the key structural brake.

Naomi played a very solid match against Jovic; she was almost unbreakable and serving lights out. Saba is ramping up, you can see it in the stats, match after match, but against opponents who in the end didn’t really trouble her. First real test here, and we know the world number one doesn’t have the same grinta as last season, nor the same combative edge. Is that enough for an upset? It will mainly depend on the Japanese player, because here she’ll have an even stronger return than Jovic. The players ranked 2, 3, 4 and 5 in the elite are out, the race for number one is wide open, and there are 2,000 points up for grabs to cement her dominance.