The two big favorites.

It’s kind of the final of this section of the draw. They’re the ones most likely to reach the final; no matter who wins this match, they’ll be the favorite in the semifinal.

We should have a great matchup with two players bringing out their best tennis. For Félix Auger-Aliassime, this tournament has been a bit more complicated right from the start, with laborious matches and dropped sets. There’s a very clear upward trend though, especially with a magnificent win in the last round where he really played his best tennis. I really loved the level the Canadian showed in that match and he’s gaining confidence. He keeps saying that he likes clay and that he knows how to play on it. I think he truly believes in his chances this week after Sinner’s loss. He’s one of the most experienced players in the draw and one of those capable of going all the way.

Cobolli has far less experience in Grand Slams, and I think we saw that in his last match against Svajda, where he completely panicked at the end and really scared himself. He said he almost “shit his pants,” poor guy. At the same time, his tournament is the complete opposite of Auger-Aliassime’s. He’s only had easy matches so far and has always gone on court as the favorite. I thought he was perfect for two sets against Svajda, before really dropping in intensity in the third and fourth sets. I’m a bit afraid that his lack of experience and poor emotional management might make him lose his grip here. Or at the very least, I feel like Auger-Aliassime is better equipped to handle this kind of occasion and these kinds of opportunities.

In terms of the match-up, I can understand the arguments in favor of Cobolli: he’s a player who returns well, who can really dig in on defense, and who can also hit very hard with his forehand. He can slow down Auger-Aliassime’s game a bit before unloading with a big shot afterwards.

I also have to mention the slightly cooler conditions, which favor the Italian a bit more. Tomorrow, in principle, the roof won’t be closed because no rain is forecast, and there’ll be a bit of wind, which should bother Auger-Aliassime more. I believe a lot more in Cobolli’s tennis, but I’m more confident in Auger-Aliassime’s mental strength and his ability to handle the occasion.