Here we are.

The long-awaited final is tomorrow. Even if we don’t get Alcaraz and Sinner, it’s still an attractive final in terms of freshness. It will be the first Grand Slam title either for Cobolli or for Zverev. The stakes are huge, the tension is extraordinary.

Zverev is the heavy favorite in this final thanks to his average level of play, but also thanks to his experience. He’s already reached this stage of a Grand Slam, unlike Cobolli who is completely inexperienced. This experience will obviously be a major asset for Zverev in managing this match, both before and during it. Does that make him someone you can be 100% sure won’t completely blow it and miss his final? I don’t know. I think the chances of him failing are slim, but he also has a big history when it comes to choking and handling pressure badly.

So far, he’s handled expectations pretty well, given that he quickly found himself as the overwhelming favorite in this tournament, while there were still a lot of matches left to play. I didn’t find him imperial, I found him good. He’s had some big lapses in his matches, whether at the start of the match on several occasions or in the third set against Mensik, where he completely falls apart for a few games before pulling himself together. But it’s really strange at times. I don’t feel like we’re looking at the ultimate player who deserves to win this Grand Slam, more that he’s simply been the most consistent overall, without playing incredible tennis. That consistency can obviously help him win this final and take advantage of a Cobolli who may still be too erratic.

The Italian has a very high maximum level of play, but he also has major weaknesses and some mental lapses over the course of his seasons. I think we can already rule out any mental or motivation problem here. We’ve seen it all week: he’s really motivated and in a good mindset to perform at the highest level. This is potentially the biggest match of his career and the only opportunity for him to win a Grand Slam. But he comes in as a big underdog, having already succeeded in his tournament. The pressure is not on him at all, and I actually see him as a very opportunistic player, ready to seize every chance to perform. He’s already won tournaments when no one expected it, and each time, he played boldly once he started to gain confidence.

He’s also already beaten Zverev this season, and in general, he tends to give him a pretty hard time. He returns better than average, so Zverev gets a bit fewer free points on serve, but Cobolli also has other weapons in his game, notably a nice defensive quality and a forehand that can do a lot of damage. He’s a complete player, and I think he’s more than capable of holding his own against Zverev. Physically, he hasn’t spent that much this week, and that’s where I think Mensik was missing a little something: he was completely spent. The fact that Cobolli didn’t even have to play a semifinal is good physically, but in terms of rhythm, it’s really not ideal. It’ll now be four days since he last played a match, and he comes back with a Grand Slam final; that’s really not easy to handle at all.