20 years later!

While looking up the players’ past results on grass and in this tournament in particular, I saw Cilic already showing up in 2006 — that really says a lot about the longevity of this great gentleman of tennis.

A great man who has just lost to a talented young prodigy named Kouame. We saw Cilic completely out of answers against a style of play he’s liking less and less: that of a player who makes him play a lot and manages to counter him perfectly. It’s a thought I’d already had at the start of the season. I’ve seen Cilic win matches against profiles that seemed good against him, notably players who serve well and aggressive players who can move him around and stop him from deploying his game. But the Croat excels against that kind of profile. He counters very well, redirects play nicely, and prefers that sort of opponent. That’s exactly what he’s expecting tomorrow with Shapovalov, who clearly isn’t coming to hang back and wait from the baseline.

Shapovalov is always unique in his style. He went through the clay season like a ghost and lost to Faria in the first round at Roland Garros. He said he was very happy with his match after his defeat, and I agree. He played a good match and, in my opinion, would have deserved to take a set. Especially when you see Faria’s level afterwards. He also mentions being happy with his recent level and looking forward to playing on grass. It’s a surface that can be a double-edged sword for him. Obviously, with his serving quality, his lefty game, and his ultra-aggressiveness, he has strong arguments to produce very good matches. On the other hand, he’s also known for his repeated double faults, his completely insane risk-taking, and his inability to tighten up his game.

We’ll have to be very careful here; I can easily imagine an in-form, irresistible Shapovalov coming in and picking off a Cilic who might need this to really kick off his grass season. On the other hand, the likelihood of seeing Shapovalov doing nonsense is minimal against Cilic’s experience, who has an exceptional record on grass and might not need that much time to find his tennis on this surface. It scares me a bit. Should we really be betting here?