Hubi's daddy

Marton Fucsovics leads 3–0 in head-to-head matchups against Hubert Hurkacz. Why does he win every time?

There’s no real magic recipe and Fucsovics’ wins are always in tight three-setters with systematic tie-breaks. His dominance is a bit deceptive. The matches could have gone the other way, but it looks like he manages to get through them. Those matches are starting to date a bit and there’s also a real difference in momentum and confidence right now, with a Fucsovics who had physical problems throughout the whole clay-court swing and seems far from his best level. After a good set against Berrettini at Roland-Garros, he completely collapsed physically in the heat.

This return to grass is going to do him a lot of good and I find him really hard to beat on this surface for several reasons. His game suits grass well, he serves well, returns better than average, has a great sliced backhand and knows how to move on the surface. He’s a genuinely good grass-court player you have to be wary of every season.

On Hurkacz’s side, you immediately think of his great serving quality, which is going to wreak havoc throughout this grass-court season. But I do question his movement a bit on this surface. He’s a player who moves well on clay, who also likes to stand far behind his baseline and grind. He can obviously play offensive tennis, but it’s not really where he excels the most. It’s when he can do a bit of both that he’s good. The slightest small dip on serve could cost him dearly over the coming weeks.

The big question in this match is really managing to figure out where Fucsovics is at. If we talk only about momentum, Hurkacz is the clear favorite in this match, but is that enough to price him this low? Personally, I don’t think so. Thanks.