The left-hander from Washington against the queen of grass

Greet Minnen goes into this second round as the clear logical favorite on her preferred surface. The Belgian is riding a six‑match winning streak on grass since Birmingham, she’s holding serve at a remarkable level on this surface and knows every bounce in Rosmalen thanks to her quarterfinal runs in 2019 and 2024. The market has her priced at 1.71 and the logic of surface and experience backs that up.

But Robin Montgomery arrives with an argument that the stats make hard to ignore. The left‑hander from Washington is in the middle of her best week on grass: three wins in three matches right here, an incredible comeback against Kasatkina after losing the first set, and a swinging serve out wide into the opponent’s backhand that is exactly the game profile Minnen structurally struggles against. Her career record against left‑handers is 4 wins and 11 losses, a 27% success rate. On grass, facing a lefty who cracks 15 aces per match and whose first serve systematically targets the outer channel, that number takes on a particular significance.

Against Kasatkina, Montgomery showed an ability to read second serves, winning 76% of points behind them, which fits perfectly with Minnen’s difficulties holding serve under real pressure. The Belgian has been playing tiebreaks non‑stop since the start of her grass‑court season, the sign of a player who wins tight rather than dominates. Up against a left‑handed server in a state of grace on these courts, every tiebreak is a roll of the dice she’s not used to winning.