A return to my roots that feels good.

Mannarino had been eagerly awaiting the grass-court season, and here he is already back in the semifinals of a tournament. The situation was a bit different for De Minaur, who doesn’t rely on grass as much as the Frenchman does, but he was in desperate need of confidence, and that’s exactly what he’s gaining this week.

Mannarino has just claimed a third consecutive win against a good server and an aggressive baseliner, in the form of Zhang, who was actually having a very good tournament. The Frenchman once again managed to impose his unique rhythm and force his opponent to play very low. I’m not going to talk about his qualities on this surface, we know them by heart and I’ve been praising them all week. Now we have to see whether, with his weapons, he’ll be able to disrupt a completely different profile in De Minaur, a player he often struggles against, unfortunately.

The Australian is regaining confidence and has just signed a genuinely good win with a high level of play against Bonzi. I’d found him sluggish against Damm in the first round, but he really corrected that, and it’s also worth noting that he had a lot of luck against Bonzi in the key moments. Even he said so in his post‑match interview, but that doesn’t fundamentally change the substance of the match. I think he deserves his win. At 2 sets to 0, the score might have been a touch closer without those little moments of good fortune. But in any case, he was very happy with his performance and mentioned confidence several times. That’s really something he’s been lacking lately, but it seems to be coming back little by little, and we know how dangerous he can be on this surface.

As I said, it’s a completely different profile from the ones Mannarino has had to face. And it doesn’t surprise me that he’s less bothered by the Frenchman’s style, given that he’s very mobile, very low on his legs, and also plays very low. What De Minaur doesn’t really like are profiles like Damm, players who serve really well, can come to the net, or break the rhythm by imposing their power.

I make De Minaur a strong favorite in this match, given his maximum potential level on this surface and the fact that, in my opinion, Mannarino loses effectiveness against this type of profile. Now let’s go take a look at the odds.