The purge of the day...

This match features two players with radically different profiles in their relationship to grass, and the stats tell a more nuanced story than the odds suggest. Ann Li, right-handed, 25 years old, WTA No. 29 and 5th seed here, is one of those players who openly claims grass as her own: her declared favorite surface is grass. But the numbers are stubborn. 6–9 in her WTA career on grass (40%), 2–3 over the last 52 weeks (40%). The ranking says No. 29 but the grass says something different. She didn’t play Queen’s Club, she comes straight from Roland Garros where she lost in R2. No recent grass matches in her legs. The H2H record against Birrell: 2–0 in favor of Li, both on hard, Singapore 2025 in the QF 7–6(2) 7–6(4) and Miami 2026 in R1 6–2 2–6 6–3. They’ve never met on grass.

Kimberly Birrell, right-handed, 28 years old, Australian, WTA No. 83, enters the main draw as a lucky loser after losing her qualifying final to Volynets 2–6 6–4 6–7(3). She therefore has three grass matches in her legs this week in Nottingham, having beaten Xu Mingge 6–6(?) and Volynets before conceding the third set in the final qualifying round. Her WTA grass record: 5–6 in her career (45.5%), 2–4 over the last 52 weeks (33.3%). On the Challenger/ITF circuit it’s much better: 14–8 (63.6%) on grass. Her overall 2026 form is solid: 16–11 (59.3%). She’s coming off a strong March swing in Indian Wells and Miami, and a Roland Garros where she reached R2 by beating Talia Gibson before losing to Oliynykova.

The key point in this match: Li comes in cold, with no grass matches in 2026, facing a Birrell who has already played two matches here this week, including one against Volynets, who was a solid qualifier. The rhythm on this specific grass is a real advantage for Birrell. Li is the 5th seed with a higher ranking, but her WTA grass record is poor and she hasn’t had the chance to get used to the surface.