A match much more open than it seems

Between Navone, who isn’t a fan of fast courts and is making his return after Roland-Garros, and Sonego, completely out of form since coming back from injury, we’ve got a match that’s hard to read.

We stopped backing Navone after his cruel defeat to Mensik, but the Argentine was coming off several good tournaments and showing a good level. Now he’s going to have to more or less start from scratch, given that he has no match rhythm since Roland Garros and also has to make that famous transition from clay to grass. I should remind you that he’s not a player who likes grass or fast surfaces, simply because his serve is harmless, sometimes even a problem for him, as he gets attacked hard on it. He is and remains a gritty player, capable of playing well anywhere. Let’s not forget that Mallorca isn’t like other grass courts. The bounce is higher and the court is not slippery at all, which allows for smoother movement and is less punishing for players like Navone, who really don’t like grass. I think the Argentine might need a set to really get into his match and find his rhythm again, but once he’s in, he won’t be as lost on this surface as people might think.

On Sonego’s side, there’s a bit more rhythm and a bit more reliability regarding his level on grass, but the Italian has been really poor since coming back from injury. He’s won a few matches by grinding and going full throttle, but since then he hasn’t managed to back it up. Can we really blame him for losing to Basilashvili last week, then to Shelton after getting a lucky loser spot? I really don’t think so. Those aren’t playing styles he enjoys facing. Now he gets a more comfortable match-up. He should have control of the rallies most of the time, and we know his ability to attack second serves or come to the net. I think his game can really hurt Navone, but watch out for the intense heat today, he’s not a player who copes with it very well. He can cramp or just completely burn out, and I also think that if his baseline game goes off the rails and he’s dragged into a weird, stop-start rhythm, he can lose his grip on the match.

They’ve played twice on fast surfaces and even if Sonego won both times, he was far from comfortable. Notably, there was a three-set win at Wimbledon in 2024 where he had to go through tiebreaks and barely managed to break serve in the whole match. More recently, they faced each other in Miami on hard court and that ended in a 7–5, 7–5 win. As I said, I don’t think this type of match is anything special for Sonego either. But if we stay fairly logical, Navone is still weaker on grass and he hasn’t played since Roland Garros, which in my view is going to handicap him far too much.