Two players out of form..

Both players come into Eastbourne on three consecutive defeats. On paper, it’s a match between two players short on confidence. In reality, the stats and the site’s history tell a completely different story for Kasatkina.

The Russian knows Devonshire Park like the back of her hand. Two finals, a title in 2024, eight appearances in total. There’s something about this grass that suits her, and the numbers confirm it’s no accident. Her return is clearly superior to Kessler’s: 41.2% versus 34.0% on first-serve return points, 40.6% versus 25.7% in Return Games Won. She creates far more break opportunities (0.80 versus 0.51) and converts them at 50.9%. She’s a player who knows how to read the game and construct points, even when her overall form isn’t there.

On the other side, Kessler shows an alarming grass record: 0–3 this season, and more broadly 1–7 on the surface since July 2025. Nottingham 2025 champion, sure, but the recent numbers depict a player who can no longer bring out her game on grass. A Match Efficiency of 0.000, a Return Games Won of 25.7%, a Breakpoints Prevail of 0.562. She generates little and converts even less. Kasatkina’s serve is vulnerable (42.9% of break points saved) but Kessler quite simply doesn’t have the tools on return to take advantage of it.