A solid Australian on grass

Tomljanovic is not the most spectacular player on tour. She’s not going to crush Valentová from the first ball to the last. What she does on grass is hold. Hold her serve, hold in the heated moments, hold on break points. Her 75.6% of Service Games Won and 58.0% of Break Points Saved tell the story of a player who turns her serve into a fortress on grass. Valentová will create chances, it’s in her DNA as an offensive player, but converting them against a Tomljanovic who saves her break points with that level of consistency will be a whole different story. The Czech stands at 50.0% of break points saved, eight percentage points lower. On grass, where every break changes the complexion of an entire set, that gap is decisive.

What makes this second-round match interesting is that Valentová is not without weapons either. Her 2.7 aces per match and her Pressure Points on Return at 47.2% show a player capable of producing winners on both sides of the equation. But her disastrous Service Games Won at 55.6% means that Tomljanovic, with her superior second-serve return (61.6% versus 54.1%), will also be creating regular opportunities of her own. The 19-year-old Czech will have to defend a lot on her own serve, a gruelling exercise on a surface she still doesn’t know very well.