The queen of RG is kicking off her season on grass

Three weeks ago, Mirra Andreeva was lifting the Roland-Garros trophy at 19 years old, the youngest winner since Monica Seles in 1992. Since then, nothing. Three weeks of silence, of transition, of changing shoes and bounces. This match in Bad Homburg is her first ball hit on grass in 2026, her first test since the tennis world started looking at her differently. The right-handed Russian, coached by Conchita Martinez, arrives with a 2026 record of 36–9 on all surfaces, 9–1 in her last ten matches, and a level of play structurally superior to almost everyone on tour right now. On grass over the last 52 weeks: 5–2, quarterfinal at Wimbledon 2025. Her overall ratios are better on all composite markers: dominance ratio 1.500 versus 1.263, breakpoints prevail 2.182 versus 1.714, match efficiency 1.667 versus 1.385. The world No. 5 has everything she needs to win this match, except for one thing: she hasn’t hit a ball on grass in weeks.

Ekaterina Alexandrova is right-handed, 31 years old, ranked 19th in the world, and coached by her father Evgeny. Her 2026 season has been difficult at 8–15, but grass wipes all that clean like a slate: 40–21 in her career on grass (65.6%), two titles on the surface, 7–4 over the last 52 weeks, and above all 11 aces and a 63% break conversion rate against Ann Li in the first round here. The specialist is fully operational. The H2H is 2–0 in her favor, admittedly on clay and indoor hard, but Alexandrova dominated Andreeva 6–3 6–2 in Stuttgart 2025 in authoritative fashion, showing an ability to neutralize the teenager’s game when she’s at her best. On grass, her flat serve and early ball striking are weapons the Russian has mastered for years. Against an Andreeva who has been adjusting to the surface since this morning, the technical gap on grass could weigh in the early exchanges.