Easy win for the home player?

Fery is the favorite in this match.

Favorite, sure, but how much of a favorite? Fery is gaining momentum and improving a lot this season. I would have put him down as a dangerous outsider for a bunch of players in this first round. Except that in the end, he’s got a very manageable draw on paper in the form of Dzumhur. The Bosnian is not a grass-court player. However, with his profile and his movement quality, he still has a few weapons to bring to this match. I especially liked his match against Kopriva in Mallorca, despite the rather clear defeat on the scoreboard. Kopriva was playing really well against him, managing the match-up perfectly. But I feel like Dzumhur is coming back a little right now, or at least that his matches are less bad. That said, he still loses a bunch, which makes me think he could put together one or even two good sets in this match before logically going down.

Fery is still a much better player on grass, but we saw him lose in Eastbourne to JM Cerundolo, a player who isn’t exactly considered good on fast surfaces. He proved all week that he’s a different player this season and that, even on grass, you have to take him seriously. I’m downplaying that loss from Fery. To me, JM Cerundolo is clearly better than Dzumhur this season. As I said above, the Bosnian will sell his skin dearly and try to hang in there as long as possible, but Fery is still well above him and will have the advantage of playing at home. I don’t expect a perfect match from him or a completely one-sided affair, but there are lots of scenarios where he ends up winning. Should we go for his ML, which will surely be a bit low, or go for the big play with, say, a game total over?