The Depressed Dutchman

It's the same old Botic with high highs and low lows...

Neither player has been racking up wins this grass swing. Kovacevic started the year well, but not entirely unexpectedly, his momentum has slowed once switching over to natural surfaces. He will still have a shot in many matches just due to the quality of his serve, allowing him to win tiebreaks despite being quite poor on return most of the time. As for Botic, we know that grass is not the best surface for him either. I found him quite good at the start of his match against Tommy Paul in Queen's, but his level dropped a lot after having some medication (he also pulled out of Mallorca after). This is problematic for Botic; he is the kind of guy who keeps playing with injuries and shows up over and over while obviously not close to his best. I don't think the matchup is exceptionally good for either player, but I would lean slightly toward Botic since he can just about match Kovacevic on serve, and I find him a step above when it comes to returning. However, the uncertainty of his physical status presents major question marks, especially since it is now a best-of-five sets! They did face not too long ago on clay in Rome, where VDZ won in a deciding set tiebreaker as a 1.24 favorite. The quality of that match was not that good, and it was on a surface where Botic should have had a bigger advantage than he does on grass.