Not cut from the same cloth

Big clash of styles in this first round, one of them seems better equipped than the other.

Struff is good on grass and despite his lack of big wins on it this year, he’s showing up and playing good tennis. He can’t manage to keep the intensity and be perfect in every set (which is normal given how aggressive he is), but his average level is quite high at the moment. He recently took a set off Bublik and had a good loss against Borges in Mallorca after taking out Landaluce the round before, he’s there. I like to label him as a Grand Slam player, every time he manages to perform well and I actually think this long format helps him have his moments and play with even more freedom because he knows he has time, there’s no need to tighten up his game right away.

With Báez it’s a lot more complicated right now, he went through the clay season like a ghost but has just made up for it with a Challenger title right after Roland. Nothing since then except a few small exhibition/warm-up matches before Wimbledon. I do like what he’s been saying though, he seems in a good vibe and is approaching this tournament the right way, he wants to enjoy himself and knows he has to adapt his game. Deep down he’s not a grass-court player, his record speaks for itself and at Wimbledon it’s just one win in 5 appearances… I can definitely see him fighting hard to extend rallies, trying to be aggressive and come to the net, he’ll have his moments in this match, especially if he plays with good looseness. But I believe much less in him being able to sustain that and come out on top over the longer stretch.

Struff is still built for this surface, his serve drops from high and does damage, he’s ultra-aggressive and comes to the net frequently, which is a good way to avoid long baseline rallies against Báez. I don’t like trusting Struff in early rounds and even less when he’s the favorite, but here I really don’t see him losing, so maybe his odds are actually worth taking…