Roman, it is your time to shine now!

Can the 2023 Wimbledon Quarterfinalist keep going?

Quite frankly, I'm happy to see Safiullin doing well. I've said it over and over again... he has been on the wrong side of so many close matches for a long while now, it was finally time for his fortune to change. I thought he played a really good match against Rublev, quite complete in most areas, and not so many costly dips. Above all, I also thought he looked confident in the deciding set TB. He has played two five-setters in a row now, but keep in mind that he got some extra days of rest between qualifying and this first round. I did not see any real signs of fatigue from him in the fifth set.

Botic is not really a player who is ever in good form for a long time, and it was no exception this time, coming into Wimbledon. Some decent matches on grass, but nothing to write home about. However, I liked his first round against Kovacevic, where he really exploited Kovacevic's struggle to return - really loading up on groundstrokes from short returns. When he plays like that, he is really a top player! VDZ can hit massively from both wings; he is deceptively fast and covers a lot of ground... and yes, he can also play at the net. Botic's issue is that his very high peak level tends to be combined with large dips where he is just spraying balls wildly.

Now, let's dig into the matchup a bit. Safiullin should be a much tougher challenge for Botic compared to Kovacevic. As I mentioned, VDZ was able to set up a lot of his game due to Kovacevic's poor return. Roman is a better returner and also quite an aggressive one, which can really bother Botic, who is prone to being rushed on both wings, especially the forehand. VDZ does not enjoy being relentlessly pressured by Attacking Baseliners like Safiullin; it's the playstyle he struggles the most against, covering the HCP only around 38%~ of the time in the last five years (compared to a pretty much average 50%~). Anyway, enough with praising Roman. Now we need to check the price to see which side we think actually has value, despite any matchup or surface advantages ;)