Fery, on a cruising pace

He’s the great story of this Wimbledon. The (Franco-)British player has been giving us stronger and stronger emotions as the tournament goes on. He quickly went down a set to love against Dzumhur in his first round, then same thing against Virtanen. Then against Bergs and Dimitrov, he was this close (and maybe even should have) to losing the match. But his attitude was so impeccable that he came back every time. He doesn’t get carried away, he absorbs the dips. Against Dimitrov, after playing a brilliant first set, he played more than two sets without finding his best level again. And yet, he was still there. Not a word. He fought. Just for that alone, hats off man!

As for Cobolli, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: this guy knows how to win. He says he’s tired, and I believe him. He’s coming off a final at Roland Garros, and he’s a player who really struggles to string matches together. But when it really matters, tired or not, he never lets go and gives everything he has. He was a bit sluggish in his first two rounds for example, and really pushed around. But he never gave up, then raised his level until he quickly beat a low‑on‑confidence and worn‑out De Minaur.

So we’ll have a Cobolli who didn’t burn too much energy against De Minaur, and will have had a rest day. Up against a Fery who’s chaining together massive matches in terms of emotions and energy, but who is now carried by an entire nation, and for whom every extra point is a gift from heaven in the most beautiful tournament in the world.

The two men have already met this year, in the first round of the Australian Open. Arthur Fery won that match in 3 sets, but that victory is misleading because the Italian had stomach issues that day (a bit like in his first set against Khachanov here). He was on the receiving end, often in a defensive position, saved here and there by a few flashes of brilliance.

Today, he’s around 1.36, whereas the market opened around 1.4.

I understand why he’s a solid favorite. His tenacity in rallies, his ability to raise his level in important moments, and his now strong Grand Slam experience after his Roland Garros final will make him a formidable opponent who will, once again, give everything he has. But I keep in mind that physically, things could get tricky (he took a few MTOs in set 5 against Khachanov, for example). I even think that deep down, he didn’t believe he’d get through against ADM (by the way, he admitted he’d reached the end of his villa rental period and that his father was going to have to find another one).

In terms of match‑up, Fery has a higher grass‑court tennis IQ than Cobolli. Cobolli is the guy with huge resilience in rallies, who moves very fast, and who can decide at any moment to unleash a massive forehand to break things open. When you see the dips in intensity Fery has had in each of his last two matches, you tell yourself it’s going to be tricky for him. And on the other hand, the Brit has a varied enough shot selection to be able to trap the Italian tactically. He had, for example, insisted a lot on coming forward at the Australian Open. He knows that from the baseline, he won’t win. And on his side, Cobolli doesn’t have the DNA of a guy who rushes the net every time he can...