Tighter than you might think?

11–5 for Fritz, but 8–0 in the last 8 matches. The match-up is simple: Zverev struggles when he’s facing a guy who serves almost as well as he does, and who counterpunches almost as well as he does from the baseline. With that little detail on the forehand side, a domain where Fritz is more solid and knows how to attack efficiently. What bothers Z is that he ends up stuck in a pattern where he has to take a few more risks, because if he plays his usual game, he loses 3 times out of 4.

They played each other in Halle, and despite Z’s physical condition it was encouraging. Everyone is wondering if the new version of Z, meaning the more aggressive guy and above all a Grand Slam winner, is going to change things here.

Yes, it’s going to benefit him, but not necessarily on slower grass and with matches piling up. That’s why I think Fritz still has to remain the favorite and...