Yannick's garden

Betting on Hanfmann as a heavy favorite is often tricky, because the German plays better as an underdog without much pressure, but in these conditions it might be worth a shot...

High-altitude clay is without a doubt the best surface for Hanfmann, where he can make his kicked serve and his fairly heavy ball work wonderfully. Those weapons perform well in these conditions, with the bounce really exploding at altitude. He’s also a very tall player who likes to come forward and crush the ball when attacking and, since the bounce is high, it’s easier for him to do that here than on other surfaces. His quality in this type of tournament is no longer in doubt, with a final in Santiago this season in particular and, overall, consistently good results. He already reached the final here a few years ago and remains a serious contender for the title if he manages to find his tennis.

He sometimes struggles a bit to get his tournaments going and to beat players below his level because he needs time to find his rhythm. Generally speaking, he’s not a player you want to back in those situations. I see Martinez as a bit of a trap. The Spaniard, although not in form this season, is still a gritty clay-courter and occasionally makes some big breakthrough runs. It’s true that his recent results have been really disastrous and that he’s not the favorite, but it’s a first round where he has nothing to lose, so I’d say you need to be careful.

Hanfmann still leads Martinez 3–1 head-to-head and, if I think in terms of level of play, conditions, and momentum, he should be winning this comfortably. The trap mainly comes from him and his tendency to do a bit of anything and everything when too much is expected of him.