Where's the catch?

Muller was still diminished in his last match at Wimbledon and seems out of shape, on top of being physically limited. Has he had enough time to recover to come and surprise Shevchenko?

Muller was still diminished at Wimbledon and has just withdrawn from a Challenger in Germany, citing the same calf injury. He didn’t look anywhere near 100% in his last match, and that worries me a lot. On top of that, his tennis seems to be falling apart lately. He comes in with basically zero confidence and no rhythm. That’s a lot of negatives to justify trusting him from an outside perspective. I think a big price on him would be completely deserved given all the unknowns surrounding the player.

I’m not ruling out the possibility that he could find his tennis again this week, since he’s already played well in tournaments with similar conditions, but that scenario still seems very unlikely given the concrete information we’ve recently had about his condition.

We have a bit more conviction and more to hold on to on Shevchenko’s side, who at least is in form and healthy. The Kazakh is not having a great year at all, I’d say it’s fairly okay and maybe a bit below expectations. But we know him, he plays in streaks. And it makes sense to see him go through dry spells. His current form doesn’t really make you want to trust him. But before the grass swing, he was coming off a final in a Challenger tournament on clay. I also remember several tournaments in fast, high-altitude conditions where he played very well.

Shevchenko seems to me the logical favorite in this match, both physically and in terms of tennis. The head-to-head doesn’t work in his favor with two losses in two matches against Muller, but those matches are from a while back, and I feel the context of this particular encounter is so different that it has to be considered on its own.