The raccoon has really improved

JM Cerundolo is no longer the same as last year and yet he had already reached the final!

More muscle mass, a serve that’s finally impactful, and more aggression while keeping his usual solidity – JM has simply improved. The Argentine had a bit of trouble in the first round; he admitted he struggled a bit to adapt to the conditions, but once he got into his match it was good. I think he’s capable of putting together another big tournament because his game is really built for this kind of clay, and with the new qualities/weapons he’s added since then.

Kecmanovic can also play well at altitude, even if it seems less ‘obvious’ at first glance. Still, with the quality of his ball-striking, if he’s dialed in it’s hard to contain him. And he also had a pretty mixed first match: two very one-sided sets, but also a big lapse in the second set, and I especially found him very tense/nervous, with quite a few complaints directed at his box.

Very similar first rounds, but good potential this week if these two players find their best tennis. I still give a small but clear edge to JM Cerundolo, who is a pure clay-courter and simply better this season than Kecma. The Argentine has taken a step forward and logically seems the favorite in this kind of matchup, even if an easy win doesn’t seem very likely to me. This will only be their second meeting, so there’s nothing to take from the first one unfortunately. I think JM’s game can kind of ‘shut down’ Kecma with his volume and rhythm, whereas Kecma likes having intensity and a certain tempo.