You know the angle of this analysis, I think.

There are two angles here. First, the fact that the Argentinian is in much better shape than his past results would suggest. He was able to play this first round at a good average level, even if he struggled a bit to finish the match. What’s worrying are the bandages on his arms or those sort of splints. There are two of them, and it’s a bit scary, I admit. I don’t know how close he is to having his injury flare up again. Take it with a grain of salt. The second angle is the Italian, Cobolli, who was already tired at Wimbledon. He’s playing again here; I think he should have taken a break, and I picture him more likely sipping a Caipirinha than playing a clay-court match against a real clay-courter and battling for three hours. I’m going to look closely at the odds on the Argentinian’s side because I don’t believe in the Italian at all. I think it’s a pattern we should now rely on. In any case, I recommend a small stake to test this in-play. You can see fairly quickly whether the Italian is a bit sluggish or not.