Does everything really depend on Fokina here?

That good old pest Alex Molcan struck again last night. He played a remarkable match against the local favorite and scraped through in extremis after being down a set and a break. But full credit to him, and in the end it was deserved, because he plays clean, never lets go, wears opponents down, grinds with lots of drop shots. He moves better than a moped. It was a strategy you had to see in the long term. Can he do the same again against the Spaniard? That’s a perfectly legitimate question. They’re playing in the night session, on a damper, slower clay. The Spaniard will have a bit more trouble punching through Alex’s defense. That said, Fokina is still a notch above. I think it really depends on his form and how much he wants it here. And his desire looked pretty good to me yesterday against Trungelity, when you might have expected a slightly ‘on vacation’ Fokina. If he’s motivated and has big ambitions in this tournament, he should beat Alex Molcan today. Nevertheless, I’m wary, because there will almost certainly be a dip in physical intensity from the Spaniard, just like yesterday against Trungelity. And I trust Molcan a bit more to jump into the gap at that point and turn it into a much more complicated match, not to say a slog, for the Spaniard. It’s quite a tricky match to bet on pre-game, given the odds on offer.