A Worthy Final

We got the two best players in the final...

Which might seem obvious, but it's not always the case! After having watched every match in Båstad, I feel pretty confident in saying that there has been quite a big gap in performances in this tournament, perhaps a bit more than usual. Both Darderi and Rublev struggled a bit in their semifinals, both dropping a set, before switching on again and taking the deciding sets. Darderi's match was a real rollercoaster, having to go through a double-digit number of set points before claiming the opening set. Then in the second set, missing 3 match points! Vallejo did not play a bad match at all. I especially found his forehand and net play good this match, which was very important since his being able to finish points was one of the main worries in this matchup. Rublev faced a Tabilo that had certainly raised his level since his last match against Midon, and the main issue for Rublev was a big dip in his serving in set 2, which did cost him the set. Similar to his match against Pellegrino, he did a good job of not letting that frustration linger in the third set.

I do think this matchup slightly favours Rublev. While I mentioned that Vallejo was a bit limited with his weapons against someone like Darderi, this will not be a problem for Andrey. He can really turn up the intensity and impose a lot of pressure on Darderi, which is important, since he is too comfortable dictating when he is given too much time. Statistically, Rublev also tends to do quite well in the later stages of small tournaments, which makes sense since he is a player who can have some shocking early-round exits, but when he manages not to get eliminated, he can raise his level by a lot. Of course, there is also the experience factor; he has been in this kind of situation so many times. While he struggles in the quarterfinal and beyond in Slams, mainly due to having to face the elite players, it is a different story in ATP 250s and 500s at least!

Having said all this, we need to mention Darderi as well. He is an absolute beast in late stages, with a 5-1 record in ATP finals. It's not luck, one of Darderi's biggest strengths is to play the big points well, how many times have we not seen him save breakpoints with those big flat serves!?