Give me the odds!

I don't know if you saw Rocha play in Umag, but I did!

And it’s absolutely terrible, just plain awfuuuuuul! Basically, against an annoying player, sure, who made the final (Damir Dzumhur), he quite simply didn’t win a single service game! He completely hated Damir’s game and ended up totally lost in his own tennis. Should we see this as a slightly weak average level, or was it just a really tough match‑up issue? Personally, I think his average level wasn’t very good, because otherwise he would’ve reacted differently, tried something other than attacking and making blatant unforced errors.

Of course he’s going to give it everything in his home tournament. But I think there will be pretty clear limits to his level.

On the other side, it’s been a while since I’ve really watched Martinez play, but I feel like he’s playing better and better, and I’m wondering if Estoril might be his good tournament of the year. He came through brilliant qualifying rounds and is coming off a final here in 2024. Plus, his playing style (grinder + attacker) is, in my opinion, quite well suited to playing Rocha given what we saw from Rocha against Dzumhur. Playing at home could turn into extra pressure rather than an X‑factor…