Bublik is losing himself...

The Kazakh seems to be mentally collapsing at the moment and no longer has the same drive we've known him for over the past year, almost to the day.

And yes, Bublik’s crazy rise up the rankings last year started with a title in Gstaad and then in Kitzbühel. The Kazakh built on those two wins to put together a strong end of the season and aim for a potential top 10. Except all that is behind him now, and he’s slowly starting to lose ground again, above all lacking consistency and results. Quite simply, he hasn’t put together a big tournament in a long time. Seeing him again on altitude clay is interesting because his game can suit it very well. We saw last week that even in those conditions, he could be knocked out in the first round. That was against Halys, who played a great match and only won it in the deciding tiebreak. But it’s still a loss for Bublik, who smashed his rackets in frustration.

Bublik comes into this week with another title defense to deal with and a first round that could be tricky, because playing an Argentinian on clay is always a danger for anyone. On top of that, Diaz Acosta already has a win under his belt and will be a bit more in rhythm than Bublik. On the other hand, I didn’t really like the Argentine’s match against the young Cina. He took a long time to get into it and was even a break down in the third set. He sometimes has stretches in the season where he plays very well and looks dangerous. But this time, he was sluggish, his serve not really dialed in. Luckily for him, on the other side of the net there was only Cina, who really lacks experience and that killer instinct to finish his matches. Otherwise, he would have lost. Bublik is more experienced. I wouldn’t say he manages his matches very well, but he does play at a high level when he’s focused.

This will be a first meeting between two players with very different styles. Diaz Acosta’s lefty touch shouldn’t bother Bublik too much in the cross-court rallies because the Kazakh really has a solid backhand. He should also be relatively comfortable on his own service games as long as he doesn’t start doing nonsense with his second serve. Obviously, we’ll have to watch his motivation, which will be the key factor in this match. But for me, a motivated Bublik very often beats Diaz Acosta.