Highlander Blockx!

They had to beat him four times to get to the final against the Belgian, but it’s the Belgian who goes through after a rollercoaster semifinal. And there, even though he’s not playing calm, composed tennis, he gradually gains confidence and has this rock-solid resilience that allows him to reach the final. That’s a very strong argument to take into account. On the other side, we’ve got a Frenchman who, as I said during my semifinal analysis, is having one of those weeks where everything is going well. It might even be *his* week. In the sense that it’s his first ATP tournament final. It’s his first top-20 win, against Rublev. He beats the Frenchman Hugo Gaston in straight sets, even though things could have slipped a bit—maybe physically—in the second set. He gets broken back when serving for the match, and then breaks again right after. We’re seeing a week that’s almost abnormally normal for the Frenchman, who isn’t even surprised by his own level. As for the form of the two players in terms of match-up, I’m pretty hesitant. Of course, there’s the Frenchman, whose basic game is that of a defender. But again, I’ll say it and repeat it: his serve is a bit underrated for his height. I think he’s able to use his wrist properly to serve often over 200 km/h with decent accuracy. We know his backhand. He’s capable of hitting through the ball, of choosing to hit a flat backhand, slightly short and cross-court, and really nailing it. Between his defensive shots, he’s capable of suddenly playing a transition shot out of nowhere. And that’s what makes him so hard to play and justifies why he’s in the final. On the other side, we’ve got a player who, at the start of the clay season, was playing a slightly more defensive style. He was really an unbreakable wall on the slow clay of Monte Carlo and then Rome. But here, he’s more aggressive, even though the Estoril clay at sea level is quite slow. He’s playing more of a big-serve-and-aggressive-baseline combo strategy, mixing in drop shots once he’s pushed his opponent well back behind the baseline. It’s a slightly awkward clash of styles, where both players are able to change their mode a bit. And in any case, it’s a final. A final between mentally tough players. And in that respect, it’s not easy for me to pick a clear favorite here. Because, even though I think the Frenchman is better and slightly more deserving of his wins, the Belgian opposite him has, once again, unwavering resilience. And he can afford to get more free points on serve, and only have to dig in and defend on some key points or tricky situations. That can be a useful weapon in a final that will be decided in the head, not to mention his experience, of course. How will Lucas react, given that it’s his first final on instinct? I’d say he’ll approach the match like the others, with solid focus. I really like his relationship with his coach. But I’ve never seen him in these circumstances, so that remains a hypothesis. That leaves us with a match that, in my opinion, from a betting point of view, will be judged on the odds, which I haven’t seen yet. I think the Belgian, with his experience, will come in as the favorite. But if he’s a bit *too* much of a favorite, I’d recommend backing the Frenchman to win—or at least expecting a long match, with a likely game over.