So unexpected, yet not that surprising.

This semifinal is a bit like this Los Cabos tournament as a whole, which we knew would be tricky in terms of conditions and potential outsiders. It’s a small ATP 250, and we’ll end up with a finalist who kind of comes out of nowhere.

Huge win for Gea against Ceondolo to earn himself a top-20 spot and a first ATP final. The Frenchman showed resilience in a mentally tough match to handle, where he could have collapsed after losing the first set, especially after missing four set points in a suffocating tie-break. Instead of falling apart, he just kept grinding and ended up beating Cerundolo both physically and mentally. The Frenchman is really a nightmare to play in these conditions: he doesn’t make unforced errors, he covers his court well, he puts a lot of balls in play, and this mix manages to disrupt his opponents’ games. I mainly had the impression that his previous opponents had just completely lost the plot against him, but after seeing his match against Ceondolo, I understand better. He’s the one who forces them to crack and rack up mistakes.

His goal will be the same tonight, namely to make Wong crack and wear him down over the long haul. The player from Hong Kong is less erratic than the Frenchman’s previous opponents. His game is very simple and built around his serve, but as we saw yesterday, he can also be particularly clinical and put up a 6–1 against someone like Brooksby, for example. I’m not surprised to see him at this level; he’s living up to his seeding and plays very solid matches every time. I see him as less likely to crack than Cerundoro, Zheng, or Kwon, who were Gea’s previous opponents.

This is a first meeting and a huge opportunity to reach the final for these two fairly inexperienced players at this stage of the competition. Whoever handles their nerves better can come out on top, but the physical factor will also start to come into play. Gea A. has had longer matches than Wong, and the Frenchman’s game is still quite reliant on his physicality. For me, that’s something to keep an eye on. I see Wong as fresher and also much more solid on his service games.