The (semi) Final

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?

Well, we have two players who are just really dominant in Los Cabos. Shapovalov is yet to lose a match at this tournament, 7-0 so far (yes, not the best opponents; I will keep repeating it). At the same time, you can only beat who is on the other side of the net, right? ;) While Shapovalov is not known for being that great on return and breaking a lot, that's what he is doing here. He can consistently dictate the rallies with his groundstrokes, since he has been the player on court with the biggest weapons in every match he has played here so far. Also, there hasn't been anyone who can withstand him well enough defensively to make him leak more errors. Norrie has lost here a few times, but it is also the sixth time he is playing in this tournament! Semifinal, winner, final, and now a semifinal again; those results speak for themselves. In these conditions, combined with a field that is much weaker than your average ATP 250, Norrie is just feasting!

I do think this matchup favours Norrie, especially here in Los Cabos. Despite Shapovalov being unbeaten here, Norrie has played better opponents here across several years and had great results. I find his game a bit more reliable as well, and I do think he can extend rallies enough for Shapovalov to start spraying errors. They faced each other twice back in 2021, on grass and outdoor hardcourt, with Norrie winning both in straight-sets, although I can barely remember those matches. Another small factor that points me in Norrie's direction is that I found Shapovalov quite shaky on serve against Svrcina, even if he won easily in the end!